The expectancy test
Does your trading actually
make money?
Not “are you up this month” — whether the process wins over a year. Three numbers you already know. Most traders are wrong about their own, and the ones who are winning most of their trades are wrong most often.
This makes money
You lose more than you'd like and come out ahead anyway — because the winners are big enough to carry the losers. This is what a real edge feels like from the inside: uncomfortable, and profitable.
The number that just moved is called expectancy.
It is the one piece of arithmetic that decides whether an account grows, and almost nobody computes it. Everything else — the setups, the indicators, the discipline — is in service of keeping that number positive. It is the third chapter of the Primer, and the Primer is free.
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